The Jubail Outage Has One Public Meter Left
Sadara's 26 plants went down on March 31 and have not restarted. Dow suspended recognition of its share of the venture's losses in the first quarter, so its filings carry the name and nothing about the site. On Monday, Solvay put close to 15 million euros on the peroxide plant inside the same fence and cut its year.
Open Dow's most recent quarterly filing and search it for the word Jubail.
Nothing. Zero hits.
Search it for "Saudi" and you get the same answer, and so do "peroxide", "propylene oxide", "isocyanate" and "ethanolamine".
Search it for "Sadara" and you get 42.
"If the owner's filings name the venture and never the site, who is still putting a public number on Jubail?"
On Monday the answer arrived from across the fence.
What Solvay Priced on Monday
Solvay published preliminary third-quarter figures on October 19 and took its full-year guidance down with them.
Underlying EBITDA of €173m on net sales of €1.03bn, with free cash flow of €54m. Those are preliminary, subject to the quarter-end close, and they are the first numbers anyone has published that touch Jubail since the summer.
The company is specific about why. The Middle East conflict cost it approximately €25m of underlying EBITDA in the third quarter, following roughly €20m already booked in the second (chart above). And then the sentence that matters:
"This impact was primarily due to the continued shutdown of the Peroxide plant at the Sadara complex in Jubail, Saudi Arabia, which accounted for close to €-15 million in Q3 2026."
Now go back to July 29, when Solvay confirmed its guidance for the year. The confirming sentence opens with a condition: "Anticipating the restart of the peroxides plant in Saudi Arabia during Q3, Solvay confirms its guidance for full year 2026 as follows: Underlying EBITDA between €770 million and €850 million."
The restart was inside the guidance. It did not happen, so the guidance came out.
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