Capacity Ledger

Whose Force Majeure Comes Off First?

The Rhine at Kaub bottomed at 5 centimetres on Monday and reads 46 this morning, a 41-centimetre reversal in four days, and not one of the letters written on that low water has come off yet. Plus the silicon metal orders publish with two duty-free holes in them, a dumping case that collects nothing, and three chemical sites walk off the Superfund list.


If you covered a Rhine-exposed grade at spot this week, go and look at the gauge before you buy the next parcel.

The Rhine at Kaub bottomed at 5 cm early Monday morning. At 11:15 CEST today it read 46 cm.

That is 41 centimetres in four days, on a series that spent the previous week grinding down one centimetre at a time (chart below).

Six items this week. The first one is the only one that moves a tonne, and nobody has written the letter that acknowledges it.

The rest of this brief is for subscribers.

The capacity math, the trade-flow read, and what it means for the products you buy.

$100 a month, or $800 a year.