Capacity Ledger

Why American Tungsten Doesn't Reach You Until 2028

The Department of War committed $450 million to The Elmet Group on Monday and the Defense Logistics Agency signed a $2 billion ceiling for ore, concentrate and sodium tungstate. The mine restarts in the fourth quarter of 2027 and the APT plant in the second half of 2028. Also on the file: 109 days in which lysine from China owed no countervailing duty, two Chinese isocyanurate producers at 73 and 91 percent while the Spanish pair sit at zero, and Deepak Nitrite's margin going to nothing.


The United States has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015.

On Monday the Department of War committed $450 million to changing that, and the first American ammonium paratungstate from the deal is scheduled for the second half of 2028.

Three days, three federal dockets and two investor decks.

Everything Washington bought this week arrives in 2028. Everything Commerce priced this week is applicable now.

Washington bought tungsten, and the delivery date is 2028

All three agreements are dated September 11.

Elmet takes $450 million in redeemable preferred equity from the Department of War through the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program: $200 million at closing, then up to $250 million more in tranches of at least $25 million. The preferred pays 5.5% a year, compounding quarterly, payable solely in kind.

Two warrant slugs come with it, which the company puts at 24.84% of the fully diluted equity. Voting power is capped at 19.9%, and the department gets one independent director plus one observer.

Then read where the money physically goes, because that is the part with a date on it.

The rest of this brief is for subscribers.

The capacity math, the trade-flow read, and what it means for the products you buy.

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