Your Utilization Rate Comes With a Vintage
The Federal Reserve has the chemical industry at 72.3 percent of capacity in September, and its chemical capacity index has now risen 73 months in a row. On November 24 the Board rebuilds both on Census plant-capacity returns through the end of 2025, and the last time it ran that exercise, chemicals made large contributions to the downward revisions.
The last time the Federal Reserve's measure of US chemical capacity went down was August 2020, and it went down by six thousandths of an index point.
Every month since has been higher than the month before it. Seventy-three of them.
Over that same stretch this desk has logged closures, curtailments and permanent shutdowns across three continents.
September's G.17, published October 16, puts chemicals at 72.3% of capacity. The long-run average for the industry, 1972 through 2025, is 76.9%, and chemicals has now printed below it for 45 consecutive months.
"If the capacity line only ever goes up, how much of that 72.3 is real?"
On November 24 the Board tells you.
The rest of this brief is for subscribers.
The capacity math, the trade-flow read, and what it means for the products you buy.
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